How DLS Works in Cricket? Who wins if matches are rained off? News Cover

News Cover: ODI World Cup semi-finals England 1992. Chasing England's target of 252, South Africa needed just 22 runs of 13 balls to reach the finals and then It began to rain. The umpires walk off and the covers come on. With the game shortened ICC statisticians went to work calculating how many runs would be needed? The result shocked the cricketing world. Probably costing South Africa a place in the finals. 22 runs of one ball. 

This is the way it was calculated:-

12 minutes of rain cost 12 balls or two overs according to the most productive overs method used earlier to determine the new target runs from two of the lowest scoring overs were to be misused(-) from the total. unfortunately, they happen to be Meyrick Pringles 2 maiden overs, that he bowled against England. The side batting first so zero runs were reduced from the target.

The famous player and commentator Christopher Martin Jenkins on the radio was exasperated. 

"Surely someone somewhere could come up with something better." 

As a result of this absurdity - English statisticians, Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis divided the Duckworth-Tony Lewis (D/L) method, that came into play provided both sides have valid for at least 20 overs.

We realize, that it was a mathematical problem, that required a mathematical solution. The DL method was an attempt to set a statistically fair target for the chasing team, which was of the same difficulty as the original target. Have the system be fair, South Africa's target would have been reduced to, four to try or five to win in the last ball. The DL system relies on what it calls 'resources'. Wickets in hand and overs remaining. for example, if the team batting first made 254, that is using all possible 10 wickets and it is fully allotted quota of 50 overs and then rains and the game is reduced to 45 overs, that the team batting second has 10 wickets but only 90% of the overs. 

when overs are lost setting an adjusted target for the team batting second, is not as simple as it seems. Because a team with 10 wickets in hand and 50 overs to bad, will play more cautiously. Then a team having 10 wickets in hand and twenty-five overs to bad. it is also possible, that the chasing team's target, is adjusted upwards! take this example from espncricinfo.com. The team batting first makes 300 runs in 50 overs. If it rains and the over that contains now 25. Should the target behalf 151? NO...! The new target will be 192. Rain can fall any time and each time, A new target is calculated. Another example shows when you lose wickets, it is as important as the number of runs scored. New Zealand was 67 for one in 9.3 overs when rain fell and went on to make 291 in 45 overs. But Australia's 46 over target remained at 291. Because rain fell early in New Zealand's innings when they still had nine wickets. So they had enough time to make adjustments. Had they lost more wickets in 67 for four and then finished with the same total of 291, Australia's target would have been reduced to 284. 

If the batting team senses that rain is imminent, the smart thing to do is keep wickets in hand, to ensure them maximize the benefits of DLS. In 2013 ICC appointed an American-born but Australian based data analytics professor, to make the system more accurate. Now called Duckworth Lewis turn or the DNS system. The improved DLS considers two scoring patterns by the side batting first, below 250 runs and above 250 runs. If the team has scored below 250, it means it's a low-scoring game and each run is slightly more important than if it had a higher total. 

2010 England-West Indies world t20 match showed that while DLS is fair for ODI. It was still unsuited for T20. Chasing 192, West Indies were 31/0 in 2.2 overs. After a rain interruption, the target was revised to 60 in six overs. Most experts have ever felt... The target was too little really. It should have been between 65 and 70. So we altered to system universally in such a way, that if the same thing happened now, it would show a par score of 66 runs. since our captains need to keep their focus on cricket and not on math.

 The chasing team is given a "par Score" sheet based on wickets lost. Par score for this Australia vs. Bangladesh match after 20 overs were, no wickets 41 runs, one wicket 48 runs, 2 wickets 58 runs, 3 wickets 69 runs and if they lost 4 wickets the past score would have been 84 in 20 overs. So the chasing team knows exactly how many runs are required in case of rain. Par Score means a tie, par plus 1, equals a win. Statistically chasing a target offers a slight advantage anyway. But rain-affected games give no additional advantage to chasing teams. In his interview with Vijay Tagore, Steve claims that "power play" overs and normal overs are not statistically different! While more runs are certainly scored in power players more wickets are also lost. 

Though Virat and Rahane are different types of batsmen, DLS does not take individual performances into account but does differentiate between top and lower-order batsmen. While BCC plays by the DLS system in international cricket, for domestic cricket, it uses its own VJD method. My method uses six scoring patterns as compared to DLS's 2. With the ODI World Cup once again in England many matches will be rate affected.